Strategic Assessment (Quarter 1, 2023)

This Strategic Assessment provides insights into the global supply chain issues that will shape Defence’s ability to maintain adequate war stocks of strike weapons. It discusses the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on Western stockpiles, the diversification of rare earth processing and the increasing pressure on Western militaries to secure their stockpiles of strike weapons. These topics have been emphasised on the basis of their significance to long-term strategic decision making, the formation of narratives, and their potential influence on capability development and the future force outlined in the 2023 Defence Strategic Review (DSR).

Introduction

Much has changed since the Australian Army Research Centre’s last Strategic Assessment in Quarter 3, 2021. The Covid-19 pandemic has become a part of everyday life, but its impact is still being felt across the social, economic and industrial spectrum. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has absorbed significant resources from the West and continues to dominate global attention. Supply chains remain stretched and the contribution of Western equipment to Ukraine has depleted Western-derived war stocks. Severe weather events, including cyclones and floods, are occurring more often and are more severe than ever before. The clouds of recession hang over many countries, as they struggle to manage pressures due to high levels of public debt incurred during the pandemic.

This assessment will review some enduring trends from 2022 into 2023. It considers the ongoing challenge of electrification and rare earths and the effect they will continue to have on global supply chains. These factors will inform challenges in global supply chain production and delivery that will impact Defence’s ability to acquire and maintain adequate war stocks of strike weapons. It also discusses the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on Western stockpiles, the diversification of rare earth processing and the increasing pressure on Western militaries to secure stockpiles of strike weapons.