Book Review - 2034: A Novel of the Next World War
Written by: Elliot Ackerman and Admiral James Stavridis
Penguin Press, 2021, 303 pp
Paperbook ISBN: 9781405966429
Ebook ISBN: 9781405966436
Reviewed by: Albert Palazzo
In 1978 the retired British general Sir John Hackett published an account of a fictional war between the United States and the Soviet Union. For me, reading it is a distant memory, but at the time it formed a part of my foundation as a scholar of war. The Cold War was ongoing, and growing up in New York City nuclear annihilation was always a prospect, especially if the leaders of either country miscalculated the odds of any martial adventure. The Third World War: August 1985, as Hackett’s book was titled, saw the world go to the brink of nuclear destruction as conventional operations gave way to a limited exchange that resulted in the incineration of Birmingham and Minsk, and the Soviet Union’s collapse. Hackett wrote the book as a cautionary tale, as well as to encourage Western Europeans and Americans to strengthen their nations’ conventional forces.
Forty-three years on I have the pleasure, and sorrow, to read another book on a future fictional war. In 2034: A Novel of the Next World War, Elliot Ackerman and Admiral James Stavridis (ret), consider a violent resolution to the escalating tension that exists between a stronger and more confident China and a still-proud United States that is reluctant to accept, or even understand, that the world has changed. One does not need to have read Shakespeare to recognise that tragedy is the only outcome of such a combination of emotion with military power. And indeed tragedy is what happens, particularly for the cities that are levelled as the combatants justify escalation across the nuclear threshold in a fool’s quest for victory.
Ackerman and Stavridis share with Hackett some motivations for writing their book. 2034 is a timely reminder that nuclear weapons cannot be used without the risk of the end of human civilisation. In present-day security discussions the limits imposed on war by the onset of the atomic age, which Bernard Brodie identified in the 1946 book The Absolute Weapon, seem to have been forgotten by military professionals and their civilian masters. The result is war drums beaten with increased fervour but diminished responsibility.
For the military practitioner, the takeaways from 2034 are not to be found amongst the tactics employed by the combatants. None would be of any surprise to contemporary students of war, although cyber does feature more centrally. Rather, what draws the authors’ attention is the timeless human values that sit at the heart of all conflict and remain critical to the understanding and waging of war. It is in the exploration of these themes, and the need to recognise and learn, that the book’s value lies. Hubris and miscalculation are exhibited by both the United States and China, as is the need to make decisions in an environment of uncertainty, no matter the scope of the combatants’ enhanced sensor and data-crunching capabilities. Personality and ambition also feature at key decision points, in the negative and positive senses. Lastly, Ackerman and Stavridis make clear the need for commanders and staffs to have a deep, penetrative understanding of your opponent’s culture, as well as your own, if you are to anticipate your enemy’s actions and to mask your own.
As this is a work of fiction, the authors are able to highlight traits that are difficult to express in works of history, such as the need for commanders to have imagination. It is not enough to follow doctrine and military planning processes when making your plans or attempting to anticipate your opponent’s intentions. Genius comes from the ability to imagine the possibilities that are outside the staff process, for it is there that decisive success lies.
For those whose job it is to wage war, fiction offers another path to professional fulfilment. Fiction’s usefulness should not be discounted, and it has the benefit of being easier to master than On War. It has a part to play in the mix of one’s military reading and professional eduction. 2034 can admirably serve as a seminar for junior officers who may need motivation to accept the importance of self-education for the benefit of their careers as well as the lives of those they command. Ackerman and Stavridis have written a useful, action-packed book that is highly accessible and relevant, and I recommend its inclusion on military reading lists.
About the Reviewer
Dr Albert Palazzo is an Adjunct Professor in the School of Humanities and Social Sciences at UNSW-Canberra. Previously, he was the long-serving Director of War Studies in the Australian Army Research Centre. Dr Palazzo has published widely on Australian military history as well as the future character of war. His current research focus is on the potential of the Strategic Defensive to serve as the basis of Australia's defence policy.
