Book Review - Defence Planning and Uncertainty: Preparing for the Next Asia–Pacific War

Defence Planning and Uncertainty: Preparing for the Next Asia–Pacific War

Written by: Stephan Frühling, 

Routledge, 2014 

ISBN 9780415605731, 240pp,

Reviewed by: Lori Lucietto

As the Indo–Pacific region continues to grow, both economically and militarily, a growing number of countries in the region and beyond are facing challenges in their strategic planning. Stephan Frühling asks, ‘How can countries determine what kind of military force is needed if threats are uncertain and history is full of strategic surprises?’ For the defence planners in both the Department of Defence and the Services who are tasked with implementing the soon to be released Defence white paper and capability plan, Defence Planning and Uncertainty can provide guidance in mitigating these future threats and uncertainties.

Frühling acknowledges that uncertainty in defence planning is inevitable, but insists risk can be managed and uncertainty reduced. Different types of uncertainty mean that countries need to approach decisions about military force structure, acquisition, maintenance, or disbanding of military capability in different ways. Frühling proposes four defence planning frameworks that can be used by defence planners, covering various types of strategic risks that a country may face:

• Net assessment based planning is based on one dominant and immediate strategic risk. In this scenario the threat can be well understood because it can be identified and defence planners can manage the risk by preparing a counter force posture.
   
• Mobilisation planning involves one dominant strategic risk where the threat is yet to develop. Force structure planning needs to be based upon countering this threat if and/or when it rises.
   
• Portfolio planning is about structuring the defence force to respond to a variety of risks that may materialise.
   
• Task-based planning is based on many unknowns and a multitude of possible risks. Therefore their identification is not possible at the current time and additional information to assist planners is not available. In this case, the risks are either unknown, unexpected or not well understood.

Upon assessing the strategic risk/s and selecting the most suitable planning framework, Frühling details a number of subsequent steps that planners need to consider, including: developing a strategy to manage these risks, codifying this strategy into military requirements, choosing the most appropriate force structure approach and ensuring a conceptual fit between the risks, the strategy and the capability requirements, to ensure a coherent approach.

Frühling draws on a number of case studies from the United States, Australia and New Zealand to demonstrate the frameworks. While they offer a practical application of the theory detailed in the book, they tend to be the exception rather than the rule. Each case study fits a little too neatly within the specific frameworks highlighted. Frühling acknowledges this point and advises defence planners to use more than one framework where needed. In contrast, chapter seven’s case study of the evolution of US defence planning between the 1990s and 2000s is useful in demonstrating how defence planning is influenced by the dynamic and often unclear nature of strategic risks. It highlights both strengths and weaknesses of the US approach to defence planning during these two decades.

The book concludes by considering the enduring issues with defence planning. Frühling explains that the frameworks should inform and help communicate, rather than direct, practical efforts by planners. These frameworks are intended to encourage clarity and coherence in defence planning through establishing the necessary steps to better understand the strategic environment. He asserts that successful defence planning requires clear political guidance on the objectives and strategic adversaries and needs to be a constant effort in times of both peace and conflict.

Defence Planning and Uncertainty provides a clear and logical approach for the strategic community, from students of strategic studies and international relations to senior planners and policymakers within government. Instead of predicting future threats, it reflects on past strategic policy decisions and planning methods in order to learn from them. It provides a guide to thinking about defence planning, rather than offering all of the answers.

Changing global dynamics is shaping the twenty-first century and, for Australia, the Indo-Pacific pivot means an uncertain future, where there are no distinct threats, but a multitude of multi dimensional risks. This book offers a coherent way forward for the country’s defence planners and policymakers in a period plagued by uncertainty and fiscal austerity.