Strategic Assessment (Quarter 1, 2021)

Introduction

2021 is a new year that arrives with antecedents firmly established and continuing to drive the strategic agenda. The AARC 2020 Strategic Assessments held, at their core, a view that the events of 2020 were accelerants of existing domestic and international challenges. The 2019–2020 National Bushfire crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic; tensions between US, China and their partners, and many Western nations experiencing social and political division, led the Prime Minister to describe the upcoming decade as ‘uncertain’ and ‘dangerous’. Australia had to explore, test and adjust to address significant changes and challenges. These challenges will continue to influence Army organisational, and potentially operational, decision-making in 2021. A facet of the purpose of this Q1 Assessment is to provide a succinct summary of issues that may influence strategic decision-making in 2021. It updates information within the three Strategic Assessments presented in 2020, focussing upon the COVID-19 pandemic, economics, politics and the geostrategic environment. The assessment utilises open-source information and commentary from reputable sources.

A facet of the purpose of this Q1 Assessment is to provide a succinct summary of issues that may influence strategic decision-making in 2021. It updates information within the three Strategic Assessments presented in 2020, focussing upon the COVID-19 pandemic, economics, politics and the geostrategic environment. The assessment utilises open-source information and commentary from reputable sources.