The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Future Wars
Naval University Press, 2024 248 pp
Hardcover ISBN: 9781612515410
Paperback ISBN: 9781682478622
Author: George Galdorisi and Sam J Tangredi
Reviewed by: Catherine Batch
In Algorithms of Armageddon: The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Future Wars, authors retired US Navy Captain (and career naval aviator) George Galdorisi and retired US Navy Captain (and former surface warfare officer) Dr Sam J Tangredi explore the looming reality of integrating artificial intelligence (AI) into military conflict and strategy. Through their meticulous research, the authors provide an in-depth look at the technological advancements driving AI and the ethical, strategic and geopolitical dilemmas they pose. The book also tackles the critical power dynamics between major global players like the US, China and Russia. In this regard, it highlights characteristics of a potential AI arms race, including how each nation approaches the development and control of AI in military contexts given the commercial realities that arise when technology is owned and controlled by different governments.
The book opens with a powerful argument: AI is not merely the future of warfare; it is the present. Galdorisi and Tangredi examine the ways in which AI is already being used in military conflicts, particularly in autonomous and semi-autonomous systems like drones and advanced missile technology. The authors reinforce the fact that AI will increasingly be used as a decision-making tool, assisting in battlefield assessments, coordinating drone attacks, and managing vast amounts of information. They emphasise that the pace of AI development is accelerating more quickly than many had anticipated, and that the ramifications of this technological shift are immense.
A central theme explores how AI will be integrated into decision-making processes in warfare. The authors introduce three distinct categories for understanding human involvement in AI-driven systems: ‘in the loop’, ‘on the loop’, and ‘out of the loop’. These terms can be summarised as follows:
- In the loop: AI aids and recommends action but human operators retain final decision-making authority. This is the current model for most semi-autonomous systems and is generally the safest, as it allows humans to apply moral judgement.
- On the loop: AI operates with more autonomy but human oversight remains. In this model, humans are supervisors, stepping in only when necessary. This set-up introduces new challenges, as AI decisions might occur too quickly for effective human intervention.
- Out of the loop: AI operates in fully autonomous systems where it makes decisions without human oversight. The authors warn of the dangers inherent in this model, where AI could act in ways that are beyond human control, raising critical ethical concerns.
Galdorisi and Tangredi caution that as military operations become more dependent on AI, especially in autonomous systems, the level of human oversight may decrease, leading to unpredictable or unintended consequences on the battlefield.
The book delves into the geopolitical ramifications of AI, particularly focusing on China’s aggressive pursuit of AI dominance. China’s approach to AI is fundamentally different from that of the US, largely due to the central control exercised by the People’s Republic of China over private industry. Galdorisi and Tangredi analyse how China has been able to extract algorithms and technological advancements from companies like Alibaba and ByteDance (which owns TikTok), forcing these companies to submit their AI technologies to the state. This tight integration of commercial and military AI development has allowed China to make rapid strides in deploying AI for surveillance, biometrics and military applications. The authors describe China’s strategy as a holistic one: it is leveraging both state assets and private sector innovation to build an AI-driven military infrastructure.
This Chinese approach stands in stark contrast to that of the US, where there is a clear, deliberate and institutionalised separation between commercial and military applications of AI. In the US, civilian tech companies and defence agencies generally operate within distinct domains, with strict legal and ethical frameworks governing the transfer of technology between them. Policies such as export controls, defence procurement regulations, and transparency requirements are designed to maintain a clear boundary between private sector innovation and military use. This separation reflects broader democratic values of accountability, civilian oversight and market competition, aiming to prevent the concentration of power that can arise when commercial and military AI development are deeply intertwined, as seen in China’s civil–military fusion model.
The authors point out that this division has sometimes worked to the disadvantage of the US military, especially when US companies have sold AI technologies to China that were subsequently reverse-engineered for military use. Galdorisi and Tangredi argue that China’s ability to merge commercial AI with state-controlled assets, like surveillance systems and advanced autonomous weapons, is a game changer. China’s rapid development of AI-based warfare technologies places it in direct competition with the US for global dominance, particularly as both countries race to develop autonomous military systems that can operate without human intervention.
Algorithms of Armageddon explores how demography has forced Russia—due to a reduction in population of war-fighting age—to turn to AI as a critical component of its military strategy. Specifically, AI offers the potential to fill the gap left by a diminished human workforce, allowing Russia to deploy autonomous systems, drones and AI-driven decision-making tools that can enhance its combat capabilities without relying as heavily on manpower. In response to this emerging necessity, AI has the potential to help Russia maintain its military effectiveness despite demographic issues, making AI a vital element of the country’s future military strategy.
While China surges ahead with its unified strategy, the US is mired in regulatory and bureaucratic challenges that prevent some of its most innovative companies from contributing to military AI. Galdorisi and Tangredi explore the difficulties faced by under-represented startups in the US, particularly those that are at the forefront of AI innovation but cannot secure Department of Defense contracts due to complex and often prohibitive regulations. These startups may possess cutting-edge AI technologies but they are often excluded from the defence sector because they cannot meet the compliance standards designed for larger, more established defence contractors. This is a missed opportunity. By failing to nurture these smaller companies, the US risks falling behind in the AI arms race. The authors argue that the US government must revise its procurement process to enable smaller, more innovative companies to contribute to military AI development, lest it be outpaced by competitors.
Another strength of Algorithms of Armageddon is its examination of the ethical and strategic questions surrounding AI in warfare. The book does not shy away from the difficult moral questions posed by autonomous systems. The authors emphasise that the use of AI in warfare raises significant ethical concerns, particularly when it comes to decision-making in life-and-death situations. Trust in AI systems is fundamentally different from trust in human operators. With humans, trust is binary: either you trust the person to make the right decision, or you don’t. As the authors observe, the more we rely on AI to make critical decisions, the more we must grapple with the question of accountability. If an autonomous system makes a catastrophic error, who is responsible? The authors suggest that maintaining human oversight—particularly in the ‘in the loop’ and ‘on the loop’ models—remains essential for ensuring ethical decision-making in warfare. In addition to ethical concerns, the authors address the practical challenges of AI in military use. For example, AI systems are dependent on a constant supply of electricity and are vulnerable to hacking. Moreover, the authors point out that AI’s capabilities, while impressive, are often over-hyped. They caution against notions that AI can single-handedly change the outcome of wars, arguing that human judgement and strategy will remain critical components of military success.
The conclusion of Algorithms of Armageddon reflects on the inevitable march of AI into warfare. Galdorisi and Tangredi argue that the challenges posed by AI are both ethical and practical in nature. While AI has the potential to revolutionise military operations, it also introduces new risks that must be carefully managed. The future of AI in warfare will depend on how nations choose to integrate these technologies into their decision-making processes.
The book closes with a warning: the US must reform its approach to AI, particularly by fostering innovation among smaller startups and rethinking its regulatory frameworks. Ultimately, the authors call for a global conversation about the rules governing AI in warfare. While nations like the US might want to control their own use of AI, they cannot prevent other nations from doing the same. This is the central dilemma of the AI arms race: as AI becomes more embedded in military strategy, the risks of unintended consequences and catastrophic errors increase.
Algorithms of Armageddon: The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Future Wars is a deeply insightful and thought-provoking examination of how AI is reshaping warfare and international security. The book offers a comprehensive analysis of the strategic, ethical and geopolitical challenges posed by AI, particularly in the context of an evolving arms race between global powers like the US, China and Russia. Galdorisi and Tangredi’s exploration of AI’s applications in military contexts, combined with their warnings about potential pitfalls, make this work a critical resource for understanding the future of warfare.
This book is highly recommended for several key groups within the Army and broader defence sector. First, leaders responsible for shaping military policy, strategy and doctrine should engage deeply with Algorithms of Armageddon. The book offers crucial insights into the role AI will play in future warfare, not only in terms of technology but also in regard to strategy. Galdorisi and Tangredi provide a sobering assessment of how AI could alter the balance of global power and the very nature of conflict. Leaders involved in long-term planning and defence innovation must understand these dynamics to make informed decisions about AI integration. Second, military technologists and AI specialist personnel involved in research and development of military technologies will benefit from the book’s technical discussions on AI autonomy, decision-making and machine learning. The exploration of ‘in the loop’ ‘on the loop’ and ‘out of the loop’ systems is particularly valuable for those working on the ethical and practical challenges of integrating AI into military operations and the reference to a common language or framework for allies. The ethical dilemmas surrounding AI use in warfare is a key theme of the book, and of interest to Defence’s ethicists and legal experts alike. They will find this work crucial in guiding policy decisions and crafting future legal frameworks around AI. Department policymakers and procurement officers will also benefit from the book’s critical analysis of bureaucratic inefficiencies in the US Department of Defense.
For the broader defence community, this book is an essential read. Galdorisi and Tangredi focus not just on the technology itself but also on how AI will affect everything from battlefield tactics to long-term strategic outcomes. The notion that AI will radically transform the tempo of war, potentially outpacing human decision-making capabilities, is something that all military professionals should understand. AI is not just a tool; it will become a fundamental part of how wars are fought, won or lost.